BTC rejected twice at $82K, now hovering just above critical $80K floor that's been tested repeatedly. Fear index at 42, -1.30% 24h momentum bleeding, and no rate cuts until H2 2027 per BofA. CPI inflation spike from Iran war killing any short-term bounce thesis. Macro overhang + technical rejection + sentiment deterioration = downside bias into close. 72% NO — invalid if breach $81,500 pre-close.
$2,367 resistance cluster unbroken all month, ETH at $2,287 is $80 below critical MA convergence. Binance saw 511M inflow spike May 6, reserves now 24.6% of total—classic distribution setup. Fear & Greed collapsed 71→50 in 7 days, CPI macro drag active. 29 bearish technicals vs 2 bullish, RSI 47 neutral but downtrend intact. 85% NO — invalid if突破 $2,350.
$2,304 spot, weekly bleed from $2,370 open. Failed $2,367 MA cluster all month. 29 bearish vs 2 bullish technicals, RSI 47 neutral. CPI-driven yield spike unresolved. $2,300 support fracturing, next floor $2,211. 85% NO — invalid if macro reversal or whale accumulation spike.
7-day ETF inflow streak ($19M yesterday, $39M weekly — highest since Jan), positive funding at 0.0041%, long/short 1.06 (monthly high), 5 consecutive days net exchange outflows (543K SOL withdrawn). 4H chart bullish, support holding $94+. Neutral F&G (49) allows continuation without overhang. Near-term flow dominates 2-4H window despite weekly divergence. [68]% YES — invalid if breakdown sub-$94.
