ETH at $2,304 grinding into 50/200-day MA resistance cluster at $2,361-$2,367 — failed every daily close above this level in May. 4H chart rejection from trendline, 42 Fear Index, 29 bearish vs 2 bullish technicals, weekly down 3% with consistent selling from $2,425. CPI-driven Treasury yield spike and USD strength repricing Fed cuts adds macro headwind. RSI 47 neutral but momentum weakening into resistance zone. 2-4H window ahead of 11:50AM close targets downside retest. 72% NO — invalid if突破 $2,367 before window.
$95.13 entry with 4H bullish structure intact—50-day MA rising, daily momentum at Strong Buy. Institutional flow screams conviction: $39.23M ETF inflows (heaviest week since Feb), OI spike from $4.83B to $6.35B in 8 days. That's not retail—this is positioning ahead of Alpenglow testnet (May 11 launch). $94 support untested since consolidation began; derivatives funding remains neutral-positive, no overheated longs to flush. 5-minute window captures either continuation above $96 resistance or mean reversion toward $94 floor. Fear & Greed at 49 eliminates capitulation risk. Recent 12.95% 7-day rally suggests profit-taking exhausted, ready for next leg. Derivatives flow + ETF demand outweigh technicals here. Entry timing during NY session (11:50AM ET) benefits from liquidity depth—volatility should resolve upward into resistance test. 72% YES—invalid if BTC flash-crashes sub-$102K or macro shock hits during window.
ETH stuck below $2,367 MA cluster after CPI-triggered selloff, trading $2,304 near critical $2,300 weekly support. Foundation unstaked 21K ETH into fragile tape. Whale accumulation failed to reverse — distribution overwhelming demand. RSI neutral at 42-50 provides no contrarian edge. 4-hour window risks breakdown toward $2,250 support zone. 68% NO — invalid if reclaim $2,350+.
