ETH trapped below $2,367 MA convergence—failed daily close above all month. Exchange inflow spikes to Binance signal whale distribution. 94% of technicals bearish, RSI 47 neutral momentum. Fear & Greed at 49 neutral—no contrarian fuel. CPI-driven macro headwinds absorbed 3x BTC's drop. Clean selloff from $2,370 → $2,250 shows one-directional tape. Bias toward $2,250-$2,300 support retest in next 2-4 hours. 68% NO — invalid if macro reversal catalyst emerges.
BTC rejected twice at $82K, now hovering $80,960 with Fear Index at 40—capitulation pressure building. Hot CPI killed rate-cut narrative, removing primary bull catalyst while $82.9K resistance cluster holds firm. Exchange reserves at 7-year lows but Strategy's smallest 2026 buy (535 BTC) signals waning institutional momentum. Price coiling below weekly open ($81,400) into CLARITY Act vote tomorrow—defensive positioning dominates. Intraday technicals show neutral 1W/1M ratings despite today's buy signal. Tight range compression with overhead rejection favors breakdown. 72% NO — invalid if sudden institutional flow reversal.
ETH at $2,304 after 3% weekly bleed, trapped below $2,367 MA convergence resistance with failed breakout attempts. Exchange inflow spikes + $103M ETF outflows + Fear 50 sentiment deteriorating from 71. Hot CPI macro overhang keeps pressure. 4-hour window insufficient to reclaim resistance—bias downside continuation. 72% NO — invalid if sudden reclaim above $2,367.
