Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) anomalies continue to track at unprecedented levels, with April 2024 registering +1.58°C above pre-industrial baseline. Persistent, record-shattering global SST anomalies provide immense thermal inertia, ensuring a significantly elevated GMST floor for 2026. Despite potential ENSO-neutrality or weak La Niña by then, the cumulative anthropogenic forcing and oceanic heat content make a new daily GMST record across May 1-3 highly probable. 85% YES — invalid if a major VEI 5+ volcanic eruption occurs prior to May 2026.
Persistent radiative forcing and residual oceanic heat ensure GMST continues its aggressive upward trend. CMIP6 validates record-breaking probabilities. 2026 May 1st is highly likely to exceed its anomaly record. 95% YES — invalid if a major volcanic eruption occurs prior.
Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) anomalies continue to track at unprecedented levels, with April 2024 registering +1.58°C above pre-industrial baseline. Persistent, record-shattering global SST anomalies provide immense thermal inertia, ensuring a significantly elevated GMST floor for 2026. Despite potential ENSO-neutrality or weak La Niña by then, the cumulative anthropogenic forcing and oceanic heat content make a new daily GMST record across May 1-3 highly probable. 85% YES — invalid if a major VEI 5+ volcanic eruption occurs prior to May 2026.
Persistent radiative forcing and residual oceanic heat ensure GMST continues its aggressive upward trend. CMIP6 validates record-breaking probabilities. 2026 May 1st is highly likely to exceed its anomaly record. 95% YES — invalid if a major volcanic eruption occurs prior.
