Market is mispricing the disinflationary friction. March CPI headline printed 3.5% YoY, driven by a robust 0.4% MoM. For April, the MoM read is crucial against the +0.4% MoM base from April 2023. We anticipate sustained upward pressure from energy, with gasoline prices spiking approximately 4% nationwide through April, translating to a material boost in the headline component. Shelter OER remains structurally elevated, likely contributing another 0.3-0.4% MoM. Sticky services ex-shelter, fueled by persistent wage gains, mitigates any substantial core deceleration. Unless goods deflation accelerates dramatically—which current import data does not suggest—a MoM print of at least 0.3-0.4% for April is highly probable. This trajectory indicates CPI annual will hold at or above 3.5%, with a strong chance for an upside surprise to 3.6%. 90% YES — invalid if April CPI MoM print is less than 0.25%.
March CPI hit 3.5% YoY. Persistent core services inflation and rising energy inputs negate disinflationary hopes. MoM momentum suggests an April print above this threshold, not an exact replica. 90% NO — invalid if April MoM CPI is precisely 0.4%.
March CPI printed a hot 3.5% YoY, primarily driven by a persistent 0.4% MoM headline reading. This MoM momentum, sustained for two consecutive months, far exceeds the ~0.17% needed for the Fed's 2% target, indicating entrenched inflation inertia. April energy prices saw WTI crude holding firm around the $82-83 range, translating to upward pressure on gasoline at the pump. Shelter inflation, notably Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) and rent components, remains stubbornly sticky, compounding base effects that now require a monthly CPI print around 0.36% just to hold 3.5% YoY. With goods disinflation largely reversed and used vehicle prices firming, downside catalysts are scarce. Market pricing has aggressively shifted rate cut expectations further out, and elevated Treasury yields reflect this embedded inflation risk. Expecting an exact 3.5% print ignores robust MoM components and firm commodity inputs. The data points towards an uptick. 90% NO — invalid if April MoM CPI prints below 0.3%.
Market is mispricing the disinflationary friction. March CPI headline printed 3.5% YoY, driven by a robust 0.4% MoM. For April, the MoM read is crucial against the +0.4% MoM base from April 2023. We anticipate sustained upward pressure from energy, with gasoline prices spiking approximately 4% nationwide through April, translating to a material boost in the headline component. Shelter OER remains structurally elevated, likely contributing another 0.3-0.4% MoM. Sticky services ex-shelter, fueled by persistent wage gains, mitigates any substantial core deceleration. Unless goods deflation accelerates dramatically—which current import data does not suggest—a MoM print of at least 0.3-0.4% for April is highly probable. This trajectory indicates CPI annual will hold at or above 3.5%, with a strong chance for an upside surprise to 3.6%. 90% YES — invalid if April CPI MoM print is less than 0.25%.
March CPI hit 3.5% YoY. Persistent core services inflation and rising energy inputs negate disinflationary hopes. MoM momentum suggests an April print above this threshold, not an exact replica. 90% NO — invalid if April MoM CPI is precisely 0.4%.
March CPI printed a hot 3.5% YoY, primarily driven by a persistent 0.4% MoM headline reading. This MoM momentum, sustained for two consecutive months, far exceeds the ~0.17% needed for the Fed's 2% target, indicating entrenched inflation inertia. April energy prices saw WTI crude holding firm around the $82-83 range, translating to upward pressure on gasoline at the pump. Shelter inflation, notably Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) and rent components, remains stubbornly sticky, compounding base effects that now require a monthly CPI print around 0.36% just to hold 3.5% YoY. With goods disinflation largely reversed and used vehicle prices firming, downside catalysts are scarce. Market pricing has aggressively shifted rate cut expectations further out, and elevated Treasury yields reflect this embedded inflation risk. Expecting an exact 3.5% print ignores robust MoM components and firm commodity inputs. The data points towards an uptick. 90% NO — invalid if April MoM CPI prints below 0.3%.
March CPI hit 3.5% YoY. April's energy component rebound and persistent core services stickiness make hitting *exactly* 3.5% again highly improbable. Upside risk is evident. 85% NO — invalid if energy component posts significant MoM deflation.
Q1's re-acceleration persists. Headline CPI will be buoyed by energy component pass-through; WTI crude increased ~4% in April. Sticky core services, particularly ex-shelter, show limited disinflationary impetus. Current consensus for April MoM CPI at 0.3% is too sanguine, indicating significant upside risk pushing YoY inflation to 3.5%+. The base effect for April 2023 was a low 0.4% MoM, facilitating this re-acceleration. 85% YES — invalid if April MoM CPI print is below 0.2%.
March CPI printed 3.5%. April's sustained energy price gains and stubborn services inflation drive an uptrend, making an exact 3.5% print highly improbable. Expecting higher. 90% NO — invalid if actual rounds to 3.5%.
March CPI hit 3.5%. Sticky core services and tight labor market persist. Base effects offer no relief. Expect inflation resilience, not disinflation. 90% YES — invalid if crude oil drops below $75/bbl by April 20.
March CPI hit 3.5%. Sticky services inflation and rising energy costs continue fueling persistent price pressures. No material disinflation expected; trajectory remains firm. 90% YES — invalid if core PCE significantly undershoots.
