April's monthly inflation will decisively exceed the 0.3% threshold. The March CPI prints, 0.4% MoM for both headline and core, established a clear trend of stubborn persistence. We're observing no significant disinflationary impulse across critical components. Shelter remains the primary drag, with OER likely printing another 0.4-0.5% MoM for April, and the lagged effect of prior rent increases is still funneling through. The energy complex reaccelerated through early April, translating directly to elevated gasoline CPI. Core services ex-shelter, while showing some limited deceleration in wage growth, continues to reflect a tight labor market preventing material price erosion. PPI data for March also signaled lingering pipeline pressures. The sticky inflation thesis is firmly entrenched, making a sub-0.3% figure highly improbable without a major, unforeseen systemic shock. 90% NO — invalid if April OER prints below 0.2% MoM.
Sticky inflation prints continue momentum; March and February CPI-MOM both hit 0.4%, outpacing expectations. Core services inflation, fueled by persistent wage growth, remains the key driver, offsetting any minor decelerations in goods or specific energy subcomponents. Futures markets have fully priced out near-term rate cuts, signaling embedded expectations for continued >0.3% monthly prints. The macro backdrop does not support a sudden disinflationary shift for April. 90% NO — invalid if the headline energy component prints < -2.0% MoM.
March CPI MoM printed +0.4%, with core also at +0.4%, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures. Sticky shelter components and elevated services inflation ex-shelter show limited deceleration momentum. While some energy disinflation may occur, structural demand-side resilience and wage growth suggest overall CPI MoM will likely remain elevated. We project April MoM to be near +0.4%. This makes a ≤0.3% print unlikely. 90% NO — invalid if energy components significantly deflate unexpectedly.
April's monthly inflation will decisively exceed the 0.3% threshold. The March CPI prints, 0.4% MoM for both headline and core, established a clear trend of stubborn persistence. We're observing no significant disinflationary impulse across critical components. Shelter remains the primary drag, with OER likely printing another 0.4-0.5% MoM for April, and the lagged effect of prior rent increases is still funneling through. The energy complex reaccelerated through early April, translating directly to elevated gasoline CPI. Core services ex-shelter, while showing some limited deceleration in wage growth, continues to reflect a tight labor market preventing material price erosion. PPI data for March also signaled lingering pipeline pressures. The sticky inflation thesis is firmly entrenched, making a sub-0.3% figure highly improbable without a major, unforeseen systemic shock. 90% NO — invalid if April OER prints below 0.2% MoM.
Sticky inflation prints continue momentum; March and February CPI-MOM both hit 0.4%, outpacing expectations. Core services inflation, fueled by persistent wage growth, remains the key driver, offsetting any minor decelerations in goods or specific energy subcomponents. Futures markets have fully priced out near-term rate cuts, signaling embedded expectations for continued >0.3% monthly prints. The macro backdrop does not support a sudden disinflationary shift for April. 90% NO — invalid if the headline energy component prints < -2.0% MoM.
March CPI MoM printed +0.4%, with core also at +0.4%, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures. Sticky shelter components and elevated services inflation ex-shelter show limited deceleration momentum. While some energy disinflation may occur, structural demand-side resilience and wage growth suggest overall CPI MoM will likely remain elevated. We project April MoM to be near +0.4%. This makes a ≤0.3% print unlikely. 90% NO — invalid if energy components significantly deflate unexpectedly.
April CPI-MOM is poised to print above 0.3%, defying market disinflationary hopes. Front-loaded gasoline price increases through early April, tracking WTI's rebound, are a primary headline accelerant; EIA weekly averages confirm this uplift over March. Shelter components, particularly OER, remain stubbornly sticky with their inherent lag, anchoring the core print despite some forward-looking real-time rent moderation. Critically, ISM Services Prices Paid for March, at 59.2, signals persistent input cost pressures feeding into core services ex-shelter. While the Manheim Index continues to deflate (March -0.6% MOM), its countervailing force is insufficient against broad-based energy and services stickiness. This indicates inflation momentum is still above the Fed's comfort zone, making a sub-0.3% print highly improbable. 85% NO — invalid if EIA reports significant gasoline price deceleration by mid-April or OER prints below 0.4% MOM.
Despite some analysts projecting 0.3%, the March and February MoM CPI prints both registered 0.4%, demonstrating persistent services stickiness and slower shelter re-index disinflation. We see no compelling structural deceleration catalyst for April; wage growth remains firm. The market is pricing too much optimism, failing to adjust for upside surprises. Expect another print consistent with the recent trend, undershooting disinflationary expectations. The underlying trend risk is skewed to the upside. 80% NO — invalid if energy components see an unexpected, sharp reversal.
YES. Disinflationary forces from core services ex-shelter, coupled with decelerating shelter and flattish energy, point to the 0.3% print. OIS curve validates easing price pressures. 90% YES — invalid if core CPI MoM > 0.3%.
