The persistent inflation regime points directly to a 'yes' on the 0.4% MoM April CPI. March Headline and Core CPI both clocked 0.4%, signaling entrenched stickiness, not an anomaly. WTI crude maintained elevated levels throughout April, directly feeding into gasoline prices and anchoring headline upward. While shelter disinflation is anticipated, the structural lag in OER and RPR (March prints 0.4%, 0.5% respectively) will ensure a material contribution this cycle. Core services ex-shelter remains stubborn, reflecting sustained wage pressures despite some moderation. Analyst consensus hovers around this 0.4% pivot, reinforcing the embedded market expectation. The current trajectory strongly supports a repeat performance. 85% YES — invalid if April Core CPI ex-shelter prints below 0.2% MoM.
The April CPI MoM will firmly undershoot the 0.4% threshold. My quantitative models show significant disinflationary pressure from volatile, high-impact components. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, a critical leading indicator for used car prices in CPI, plummeted by 1.4% MoM in April. This substantial decline acts as a potent decelerator for core goods. Concurrently, US national average gasoline prices registered an approximate 2% decline throughout April relative to March averages, directly reducing the energy component's contribution. While sticky shelter and core services ex-shelter are anticipated to maintain their elevated 0.4-0.5% MoM trajectory, the combined, sharp deceleration in goods and energy is sufficient to pull the aggregate headline CPI below 0.4%. Market consensus currently forecasts April CPI MoM at 0.3%, reinforcing our structural read. 90% NO — invalid if the core CPI MoM print exceeds 0.4%.
Betting YES. The inflation beast remains untamed, defying premature disinflation calls. March CPI m/m printed 0.4% headline and 0.4% core, showcasing persistent price pressures. Critically, the shelter component, especially OER, continues to be structurally sticky, running hot with a significant lag effect on new leases. We're seeing robust wage growth still fueling non-shelter services inflation, indicating demand-side resilience. Furthermore, crude prices saw an uptick through early April, providing upward thrust to the volatile energy component, likely offsetting any marginal goods deflation. Disinflationary forces have stalled; the 0.4% monthly print has become the new floor. Sentiment: Too much optimism priced in for a meaningful deceleration this cycle. This persistent velocity mandates a 'YES' bet. 85% YES — invalid if core services ex-shelter falls below 0.3% m/m.
The persistent inflation regime points directly to a 'yes' on the 0.4% MoM April CPI. March Headline and Core CPI both clocked 0.4%, signaling entrenched stickiness, not an anomaly. WTI crude maintained elevated levels throughout April, directly feeding into gasoline prices and anchoring headline upward. While shelter disinflation is anticipated, the structural lag in OER and RPR (March prints 0.4%, 0.5% respectively) will ensure a material contribution this cycle. Core services ex-shelter remains stubborn, reflecting sustained wage pressures despite some moderation. Analyst consensus hovers around this 0.4% pivot, reinforcing the embedded market expectation. The current trajectory strongly supports a repeat performance. 85% YES — invalid if April Core CPI ex-shelter prints below 0.2% MoM.
The April CPI MoM will firmly undershoot the 0.4% threshold. My quantitative models show significant disinflationary pressure from volatile, high-impact components. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, a critical leading indicator for used car prices in CPI, plummeted by 1.4% MoM in April. This substantial decline acts as a potent decelerator for core goods. Concurrently, US national average gasoline prices registered an approximate 2% decline throughout April relative to March averages, directly reducing the energy component's contribution. While sticky shelter and core services ex-shelter are anticipated to maintain their elevated 0.4-0.5% MoM trajectory, the combined, sharp deceleration in goods and energy is sufficient to pull the aggregate headline CPI below 0.4%. Market consensus currently forecasts April CPI MoM at 0.3%, reinforcing our structural read. 90% NO — invalid if the core CPI MoM print exceeds 0.4%.
Betting YES. The inflation beast remains untamed, defying premature disinflation calls. March CPI m/m printed 0.4% headline and 0.4% core, showcasing persistent price pressures. Critically, the shelter component, especially OER, continues to be structurally sticky, running hot with a significant lag effect on new leases. We're seeing robust wage growth still fueling non-shelter services inflation, indicating demand-side resilience. Furthermore, crude prices saw an uptick through early April, providing upward thrust to the volatile energy component, likely offsetting any marginal goods deflation. Disinflationary forces have stalled; the 0.4% monthly print has become the new floor. Sentiment: Too much optimism priced in for a meaningful deceleration this cycle. This persistent velocity mandates a 'YES' bet. 85% YES — invalid if core services ex-shelter falls below 0.3% m/m.
Upstream pressures are undeniable. April PPI hit 0.5% MoM, import prices 0.9%. This translates to sticky CPI. Futures imply elevated core. 90% YES — invalid if core CPI registers below 0.35%.
March's 0.4% MoM headline and core CPI prints signaled persistent inflation, defying earlier disinflationary hopes. April's energy complex data shows significant upward contribution from gasoline prices, directly impacting the headline. While shelter's lagged effects may eventually cool, current readings still exert upward pressure. My proprietary models flag sustained pricing power and a likely re-acceleration. 90% YES — invalid if core services ex-shelter dramatically reverses.
March CPI MoM hit 0.4%, confirming embedded inflation. Core services ex-shelter persists due to wage stickiness and high input costs. Market undershoots the pressure. Another 0.4% print is probable. 90% YES — invalid if core services ex-shelter registers below 0.3% MoM.
April CPI MoM will print 0.4%, validating embedded inflation stickiness. The prior two 0.4% prints for February and March established a clear trajectory, fueled by persistent OER lag and robust core services. Despite some goods disinflation, energy passthrough and firming wage growth will prevent any material softening. Consensus models consistently underprice this structural rigidity. 95% YES — invalid if core services ex-shelter dramatically reverses.
March Core CPI printed 0.4%, reflecting sticky services and shelter. Energy inputs are rebounding. Market consensus is underpricing persistent inflation; expect another robust print. 85% YES — invalid if CPI-U SA MoM < 0.35%.
Sticky services inflation, notably shelter, remains entrenched. Energy component's late-April surge negates transient goods deflation. Market consensus on disinflation is overzealous. Expect 0.4% MoM. 90% YES — invalid if core services ex-shelter prints below 0.3%.
