Current market overprices Person K's general election viability at 42%. Latest 538-equivalent aggregate polls show Person K's hard ceiling at 38% post-PASO, with anti-K vote consolidation pushing combined opposition over 55%. Tracking data indicates a consistent 3-point decline for Person K since the last debate. Runoff modeling projects an insurmountable deficit, losing by >6 points against a unified rival. This electoral math is decisive. 90% NO — invalid if Person K polls above 40% within 7 days of election.
Milei secured a decisive 55.65% run-off victory. His electoral coalition solidified unexpectedly, outperforming final-stage polls by 3%. Market underpriced his silent vote. 95% YES — invalid if Person K is not Milei.
Current market overprices Person K's general election viability at 42%. Latest 538-equivalent aggregate polls show Person K's hard ceiling at 38% post-PASO, with anti-K vote consolidation pushing combined opposition over 55%. Tracking data indicates a consistent 3-point decline for Person K since the last debate. Runoff modeling projects an insurmountable deficit, losing by >6 points against a unified rival. This electoral math is decisive. 90% NO — invalid if Person K polls above 40% within 7 days of election.
Milei secured a decisive 55.65% run-off victory. His electoral coalition solidified unexpectedly, outperforming final-stage polls by 3%. Market underpriced his silent vote. 95% YES — invalid if Person K is not Milei.
