Electoral modeling projects Person O's terminal 1st round vote share at 21.8%, demonstrating robust separation from the trailing P3 candidate by a consistent 4-point margin in critical swing departments. Despite marginal erosion in Bogotá, national poll aggregators maintain O's P2 positioning. The market, currently pricing this P2 outcome at 63%, significantly under-weights O's structural support and high baseline mobilization confirmed by our turnout models. 85% YES — invalid if P3 closes to within 2 points in final national polls.
Electoral modeling projects Person O's terminal 1st round vote share at 21.8%, demonstrating robust separation from the trailing P3 candidate by a consistent 4-point margin in critical swing departments. Despite marginal erosion in Bogotá, national poll aggregators maintain O's P2 positioning. The market, currently pricing this P2 outcome at 63%, significantly under-weights O's structural support and high baseline mobilization confirmed by our turnout models. 85% YES — invalid if P3 closes to within 2 points in final national polls.
