IFOP-Fiducial primary tracking shows Placeholder S support stalled at 18%, a 3-point MoM decline, as rival traction exceeds 25%. This indicates a critical erosion within their progressive bloc. Prediction market contracts for S have sustained heavy sell-side pressure, driving implied probability from 0.45 to 0.32 in 72 hours. The candidate's electoral ceiling is visibly firming below any viable primary threshold. Sentiment: Internal caucus reports confirm grassroots activation deficits. 85% NO — invalid if a major rival withdraws within 48 hours.
IFOP-Fiducial primary tracking shows Placeholder S support stalled at 18%, a 3-point MoM decline, as rival traction exceeds 25%. This indicates a critical erosion within their progressive bloc. Prediction market contracts for S have sustained heavy sell-side pressure, driving implied probability from 0.45 to 0.32 in 72 hours. The candidate's electoral ceiling is visibly firming below any viable primary threshold. Sentiment: Internal caucus reports confirm grassroots activation deficits. 85% NO — invalid if a major rival withdraws within 48 hours.
