Synoptic analysis and ensemble outputs from both GFS and ECMWF are painting a clear picture of persistent warm advection impacting the Anatolian plateau. Current 10-day forecasts consistently print Ankara's May 10th high in the 21-23°C band, reflecting strong agreement on a developing thermal ridge. The 18°C threshold is well below prevailing model consensus and climatological averages for the period. 95% NO — invalid if a significant cyclonic shear zone or cold-core low develops within 72 hours of observation.
Synoptic analysis and ensemble outputs from both GFS and ECMWF are painting a clear picture of persistent warm advection impacting the Anatolian plateau. Current 10-day forecasts consistently print Ankara's May 10th high in the 21-23°C band, reflecting strong agreement on a developing thermal ridge. The 18°C threshold is well below prevailing model consensus and climatological averages for the period. 95% NO — invalid if a significant cyclonic shear zone or cold-core low develops within 72 hours of observation.
