Current GFS and ECMWF ensemble means for Beijing on May 10 consistently project a peak diurnal temperature of 29°C. This represents a robust negative deviation from the 31°C threshold. No significant thermal advection or anticyclonic warming trend is indicated in the 500 hPa geopotential height fields to push temperatures higher. The market is overpricing the tail risk of a heat surge. 95% NO — invalid if the 850 hPa temperature anomaly shifts >2°C positive by EOD May 9.
Current GFS and ECMWF ensemble means for Beijing on May 10 consistently project a peak diurnal temperature of 29°C. This represents a robust negative deviation from the 31°C threshold. No significant thermal advection or anticyclonic warming trend is indicated in the 500 hPa geopotential height fields to push temperatures higher. The market is overpricing the tail risk of a heat surge. 95% NO — invalid if the 850 hPa temperature anomaly shifts >2°C positive by EOD May 9.
