NWP consensus from GFS/ECMWF ensemble means clearly shows a P(37C) near zero. Upper-level geopotential heights suggest only a moderate ridge, with thermal advection profiles insufficient for extreme boundary layer heating. Current 90th percentile max temp forecasts for Beijing on May 11 cluster around 32-33°C. This threshold is an outlier. 95% NO — invalid if a persistent heat dome pattern materializes from the SW by May 8th.
NWP consensus from GFS/ECMWF ensemble means clearly shows a P(37C) near zero. Upper-level geopotential heights suggest only a moderate ridge, with thermal advection profiles insufficient for extreme boundary layer heating. Current 90th percentile max temp forecasts for Beijing on May 11 cluster around 32-33°C. This threshold is an outlier. 95% NO — invalid if a persistent heat dome pattern materializes from the SW by May 8th.
