Current GFS and ECMWF ensemble means for ORD on May 10 project 2m maximums well above the 48-49°F range. A strengthening zonal flow and moderate thermal advection will elevate 850mb temperatures from -1C to +5C. Diurnal heating under improving insolation ensures afternoon highs will reach the low-to-mid 50s. The synoptic pattern shows no persistent Arctic air advection. 95% NO — invalid if a strong, protracted cold air damming event develops.
Current GFS and ECMWF ensemble means for ORD on May 10 project 2m maximums well above the 48-49°F range. A strengthening zonal flow and moderate thermal advection will elevate 850mb temperatures from -1C to +5C. Diurnal heating under improving insolation ensures afternoon highs will reach the low-to-mid 50s. The synoptic pattern shows no persistent Arctic air advection. 95% NO — invalid if a strong, protracted cold air damming event develops.
