GFS ensemble guidance consistently projects DFW highs on May 10 averaging 77°F, placing this 64-65°F bracket as a severe outlier. A robust synoptic pattern featuring intense upper-air troughing and sustained cold advection, not presently modeled, would be requisite for such a thermal plunge. The probability density for this narrow range is negligible. 95% NO — invalid if the 00z/06z ECMWF operational run shifts over 10°F colder for DFW.
GFS ensemble guidance consistently projects DFW highs on May 10 averaging 77°F, placing this 64-65°F bracket as a severe outlier. A robust synoptic pattern featuring intense upper-air troughing and sustained cold advection, not presently modeled, would be requisite for such a thermal plunge. The probability density for this narrow range is negligible. 95% NO — invalid if the 00z/06z ECMWF operational run shifts over 10°F colder for DFW.
