ECMWF and GFS ensemble clusters for Dallas on May 10 show overwhelming probability for a high in the mid-to-upper 70s, with mean projections consistently around 77°F. The 50th percentile confidence interval is centered far above the specified 68-69°F range. A transient shortwave might induce slight cooling, but sustained polar advection sufficient for a sub-70°F high is absent in current synoptic patterns. This target range has near-zero model support. 92% NO — invalid if a major pattern shift to robust troughing occurs post-T+120hrs.
ECMWF and GFS ensemble clusters for Dallas on May 10 show overwhelming probability for a high in the mid-to-upper 70s, with mean projections consistently around 77°F. The 50th percentile confidence interval is centered far above the specified 68-69°F range. A transient shortwave might induce slight cooling, but sustained polar advection sufficient for a sub-70°F high is absent in current synoptic patterns. This target range has near-zero model support. 92% NO — invalid if a major pattern shift to robust troughing occurs post-T+120hrs.
