ECMWF deterministic 0z run projects a high of 66°F for Denver on May 11, corroborated by the GFS ensemble mean 70% CI encompassing 65-71°F. Weak shortwave advection will limit insolation despite moderate boundary layer mixing. This narrows the thermal window precisely to the target range. The current pattern favors this specific outcome, indicating high probability for the 66-67°F band. 85% YES — invalid if significant warm air advection overperforms models.
ECMWF deterministic 0z run projects a high of 66°F for Denver on May 11, corroborated by the GFS ensemble mean 70% CI encompassing 65-71°F. Weak shortwave advection will limit insolation despite moderate boundary layer mixing. This narrows the thermal window precisely to the target range. The current pattern favors this specific outcome, indicating high probability for the 66-67°F band. 85% YES — invalid if significant warm air advection overperforms models.
