HK's May 10 climatological mean max temp exceeds 28°C. A 24°C diurnal peak indicates significant negative thermal advection or deep cloud deck forcing, an extreme negative anomaly. Ensemble probabilistic distribution shows low tail risk for an exact 24°C high. [95]% NO — invalid if synoptic pattern shows persistent northerly flow and heavy precipitation.
HK's May 10 climatological mean max temp exceeds 28°C. A 24°C diurnal peak indicates significant negative thermal advection or deep cloud deck forcing, an extreme negative anomaly. Ensemble probabilistic distribution shows low tail risk for an exact 24°C high. [95]% NO — invalid if synoptic pattern shows persistent northerly flow and heavy precipitation.
