NO. GFS and ECMWF ensemble means consistently project Houston's May 10 high to be outside the 80-81°F band. Current runs indicate persistent upper-air ridging maintaining strong Gulf moisture advection, pushing afternoon maximums into the mid-80s. This narrow market range significantly undervalues the high probability of exceeding 81°F. Expect 83-86°F. 95% NO — invalid if a strong cold front passage occurs May 9-10.
Current GEFS ensemble means project Houston's May 10th high firmly above 81°F, with a 75% probability cone centered on 84-86°F. A dominant high-pressure ridge over the Gulf and persistent southerly flow will drive strong warm advection, negating any sea breeze cooling until late afternoon. The thermodynamic profile simply doesn't support 80-81°F. Bet NO. 95% NO — invalid if an unexpected mid-latitude trough introduces an anomalous cold air mass.
NO. GFS and ECMWF ensemble means consistently project Houston's May 10 high to be outside the 80-81°F band. Current runs indicate persistent upper-air ridging maintaining strong Gulf moisture advection, pushing afternoon maximums into the mid-80s. This narrow market range significantly undervalues the high probability of exceeding 81°F. Expect 83-86°F. 95% NO — invalid if a strong cold front passage occurs May 9-10.
Current GEFS ensemble means project Houston's May 10th high firmly above 81°F, with a 75% probability cone centered on 84-86°F. A dominant high-pressure ridge over the Gulf and persistent southerly flow will drive strong warm advection, negating any sea breeze cooling until late afternoon. The thermodynamic profile simply doesn't support 80-81°F. Bet NO. 95% NO — invalid if an unexpected mid-latitude trough introduces an anomalous cold air mass.
