Madrid's climatological mean high for May is 23.5°C, making 19°C a highly conservative threshold. Historical May 10 data consistently shows daily max temps exceeding 20°C over the past five years. Current GFS and ECMWF ensemble models project thermal anomalies placing May 10 highs firmly in the 22-26°C range, a clear breach. 95% YES — invalid if an extreme, unforecasted cold front establishes itself over Iberia.
Madrid's climatological mean high for May is 23.5°C, making 19°C a highly conservative threshold. Historical May 10 data consistently shows daily max temps exceeding 20°C over the past five years. Current GFS and ECMWF ensemble models project thermal anomalies placing May 10 highs firmly in the 22-26°C range, a clear breach. 95% YES — invalid if an extreme, unforecasted cold front establishes itself over Iberia.
