GFS and ECMWF 00Z/12Z operational runs consistently print 89-90°F for MIA on May 10, with NBM consensus pegged at 88.5°F. A robust synoptic pattern featuring strong zonal flow and a building transient ridge aloft will drive significant warm advection, pushing surface temps above the 88°F threshold. The market appears to be significantly underweighting this clear thermal surge in the short-term forecast. 90% YES — invalid if subsequent 06Z/18Z model ensembles show significant cooling trend.
GFS and ECMWF 00Z/12Z operational runs consistently print 89-90°F for MIA on May 10, with NBM consensus pegged at 88.5°F. A robust synoptic pattern featuring strong zonal flow and a building transient ridge aloft will drive significant warm advection, pushing surface temps above the 88°F threshold. The market appears to be significantly underweighting this clear thermal surge in the short-term forecast. 90% YES — invalid if subsequent 06Z/18Z model ensembles show significant cooling trend.
