Seoul's May 10 climatology firmly establishes peak diurnal temperatures well above 15°C. Historical datasets show average May 10 highs around 22-23°C; 2023 saw 24.1°C. A 15°C maximum requires an extreme negative temperature anomaly driven by an unseasonable, persistent northerly flow or a deep cyclonic system, which current synoptic models do not indicate. The seasonal thermal progression makes this threshold a high-confidence breach. 98% YES — invalid if an anomalous blocking pattern locks in arctic air advection.
Seoul's May 10 climatology firmly establishes peak diurnal temperatures well above 15°C. Historical datasets show average May 10 highs around 22-23°C; 2023 saw 24.1°C. A 15°C maximum requires an extreme negative temperature anomaly driven by an unseasonable, persistent northerly flow or a deep cyclonic system, which current synoptic models do not indicate. The seasonal thermal progression makes this threshold a high-confidence breach. 98% YES — invalid if an anomalous blocking pattern locks in arctic air advection.
