ECMWF ensemble guidance for May 10 consistently projects 850 hPa temperatures supporting surface highs between 23-25°C over Seoul. A robust upper-air ridge is building, promoting subsidence and enhancing warm advection from the southwest. This aligns with historical climatology, where Seoul's average maximum for early May is 22.8°C. The current synoptic setup indicates a high probability of exceeding the 21°C threshold, driven by favorable geopotential height anomalies. 90% YES — invalid if a significant cold air mass advection occurs within 48 hours of May 10.
ECMWF ensemble guidance for May 10 consistently projects 850 hPa temperatures supporting surface highs between 23-25°C over Seoul. A robust upper-air ridge is building, promoting subsidence and enhancing warm advection from the southwest. This aligns with historical climatology, where Seoul's average maximum for early May is 22.8°C. The current synoptic setup indicates a high probability of exceeding the 21°C threshold, driven by favorable geopotential height anomalies. 90% YES — invalid if a significant cold air mass advection occurs within 48 hours of May 10.
