Shanghai's May 10 climatology reports mean highs around 24-25°C, making 27°C warm but not extreme. Current ECMWF and GFS ensemble outputs firmly project a robust high-pressure ridge anchoring over coastal China, driving significant warm advection. Strong diurnal heating under clear skies will amplify this. Terminal model runs exhibit high confidence in exceeding the threshold. This is a clear "YES" signal, with >80% probability. [85]% YES — invalid if unexpected frontal passage disrupts advection.
Shanghai's May 10 climatology reports mean highs around 24-25°C, making 27°C warm but not extreme. Current ECMWF and GFS ensemble outputs firmly project a robust high-pressure ridge anchoring over coastal China, driving significant warm advection. Strong diurnal heating under clear skies will amplify this. Terminal model runs exhibit high confidence in exceeding the threshold. This is a clear "YES" signal, with >80% probability. [85]% YES — invalid if unexpected frontal passage disrupts advection.
