Latest GFS/ECMWF ensemble guidance strongly indicates a robust Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) establishing over Taiwan by May 10. Upper-air analyses confirm a stable airmass, favoring strong insolation and significant diurnal warming. Considering Taipei's potent urban heat island effect, afternoon surface temperatures are highly likely to breach the 30°C isotherm. The 850 hPa temperature anomaly models solid warm air advection. 95% NO — invalid if a sudden frontal boundary passes Taiwan on May 10.
Latest GFS/ECMWF ensemble guidance strongly indicates a robust Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) establishing over Taiwan by May 10. Upper-air analyses confirm a stable airmass, favoring strong insolation and significant diurnal warming. Considering Taipei's potent urban heat island effect, afternoon surface temperatures are highly likely to breach the 30°C isotherm. The 850 hPa temperature anomaly models solid warm air advection. 95% NO — invalid if a sudden frontal boundary passes Taiwan on May 10.
