The impending electoral cycle presents significant leadership turnover risk well before 2027. The UK general election, due by Jan 2025, sees the Conservative party at polling lows, projecting a high probability of Sunak's removal. Concurrently, the US Presidential election in Nov 2024 carries a substantial risk of incumbent Biden's defeat, leading to his exit by Jan 2025. These high-probability events render the 'none out' scenario untenable. Market positioning appears to misprice this concentrated electoral volatility. 95% NO — invalid if both Sunak and Biden secure their positions past early 2025.
The impending electoral cycle presents significant leadership turnover risk well before 2027. The UK general election, due by Jan 2025, sees the Conservative party at polling lows, projecting a high probability of Sunak's removal. Concurrently, the US Presidential election in Nov 2024 carries a substantial risk of incumbent Biden's defeat, leading to his exit by Jan 2025. These high-probability events render the 'none out' scenario untenable. Market positioning appears to misprice this concentrated electoral volatility. 95% NO — invalid if both Sunak and Biden secure their positions past early 2025.
