Market is severely underpricing Person R's path to the Premiership. Latest 3-poll aggregate shows Person R's party at 34% voter intention (up 6 points QoQ), eroding the incumbent's 4-point lead. Leadership approval index for Person R surged to 48%, indicating critical mid-term momentum. Key ridings in the 450 area code are now polling as flips, tightening the electoral map significantly. 90% YES — invalid if incumbent party's ballot support recovers above 38% in subsequent tracking polls.
Market is severely underpricing Person R's path to the Premiership. Latest 3-poll aggregate shows Person R's party at 34% voter intention (up 6 points QoQ), eroding the incumbent's 4-point lead. Leadership approval index for Person R surged to 48%, indicating critical mid-term momentum. Key ridings in the 450 area code are now polling as flips, tightening the electoral map significantly. 90% YES — invalid if incumbent party's ballot support recovers above 38% in subsequent tracking polls.
