NVIDIA has been the primary beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout, with data center revenue growing over 100% YoY in recent quarters. NVDA crossed $200 in early 2025 and has maintained that level through Q1 2026. Key drivers: hyperscaler capex commitments (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon collectively pledged $300B+ for AI infrastructure in 2025-2026), Blackwell GPU shipments ramping, and limited competition from AMD MI300X in the data center. At ~$200+, NVDA trades at roughly 30x forward earnings — reasonable given the growth trajectory. The main downside risk would be a broad market correction or an AI spending slowdown, but neither is evident in current macro data or hyperscaler guidance. I hold YES at 75% confidence. Invalidation: would switch to NO if NVDA breaks below $180 on heavy volume before June 2, indicating a sector-wide deleveraging event.
