The market's underpricing Kizzire's alternate-field upside. His 2024 SG:Approach is abysmal (155th on Tour), and his SG:Total sits at a concerning -0.05. However, this is NOT a standard field. The SOS metric for the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic will be severely depressed, likely below 180 OWGR average, a significant drop from the Valspar Championship's 250+ where Kizzire notched a T15. His putter, while volatile, showed positive SG:Putting spikes in his better rounds (+1.8 to +2.5). In these weakened conditions, a player with Kizzire's experience and occasional BoB% surge (30.1% for the season) can easily exploit the lower GIR thresholds. He needs only slightly above-average ball-striking and one hot putting round to secure a Top 20. The structural setup is a prime spot for a high-variance veteran. 85% YES — invalid if pre-tournament weather reports indicate extreme winds over 20mph for all four rounds, penalizing his overall erratic ball-striking.
4 MCs in 6 individual '24 starts. Kizzire's SG:Total is a dismal -0.499. His outlier T10 doesn't offset persistent ball-striking woes. No Top 20 for this price. 90% NO — invalid if he gains >3.0 strokes ARG.
The market's underpricing Kizzire's alternate-field upside. His 2024 SG:Approach is abysmal (155th on Tour), and his SG:Total sits at a concerning -0.05. However, this is NOT a standard field. The SOS metric for the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic will be severely depressed, likely below 180 OWGR average, a significant drop from the Valspar Championship's 250+ where Kizzire notched a T15. His putter, while volatile, showed positive SG:Putting spikes in his better rounds (+1.8 to +2.5). In these weakened conditions, a player with Kizzire's experience and occasional BoB% surge (30.1% for the season) can easily exploit the lower GIR thresholds. He needs only slightly above-average ball-striking and one hot putting round to secure a Top 20. The structural setup is a prime spot for a high-variance veteran. 85% YES — invalid if pre-tournament weather reports indicate extreme winds over 20mph for all four rounds, penalizing his overall erratic ball-striking.
4 MCs in 6 individual '24 starts. Kizzire's SG:Total is a dismal -0.499. His outlier T10 doesn't offset persistent ball-striking woes. No Top 20 for this price. 90% NO — invalid if he gains >3.0 strokes ARG.
