Aggressive price action post-halving is not structurally supported for a 100% gain within May. Current BTC price ~$62K. Spot ETF net inflows have plateaued, indicating demand exhaustion at recent highs. Historical cycle data shows post-halving consolidation, not immediate doubling. Expecting further pre/post-halving retrace or sideways accumulation before any parabolic move towards 6-figure highs later in the cycle. $120K in May is a fundamental misread of market structure. 95% NO — invalid if daily ETF flows sustain >$1B for 15+ consecutive trading days.
Aggressive price action post-halving is not structurally supported for a 100% gain within May. Current BTC price ~$62K. Spot ETF net inflows have plateaued, indicating demand exhaustion at recent highs. Historical cycle data shows post-halving consolidation, not immediate doubling. Expecting further pre/post-halving retrace or sideways accumulation before any parabolic move towards 6-figure highs later in the cycle. $120K in May is a fundamental misread of market structure. 95% NO — invalid if daily ETF flows sustain >$1B for 15+ consecutive trading days.
