Spot ETF inflows decelerated sharply last week, undermining previous demand shock theses. Current basis trading on perpetuals remains compressed, indicating limited leverage conviction for a $75k breakout. On-chain realized cap data shows accumulation, but insufficient new liquidity injection to fuel a 20%+ surge in the next seven days. The market lacks the aggressive bid required for such a rapid upward move. 85% YES — invalid if cumulative spot ETF inflows exceed $1B daily for three consecutive days.
Spot ETF inflows decelerated sharply last week, undermining previous demand shock theses. Current basis trading on perpetuals remains compressed, indicating limited leverage conviction for a $75k breakout. On-chain realized cap data shows accumulation, but insufficient new liquidity injection to fuel a 20%+ surge in the next seven days. The market lacks the aggressive bid required for such a rapid upward move. 85% YES — invalid if cumulative spot ETF inflows exceed $1B daily for three consecutive days.
