ABNB's current ~30x forward P/E is unsustainable given its decelerating 2-year revenue CAGR projection of 12-14%. With higher discount rates structurally re-pricing long-duration assets, we expect significant multiple compression. The modest ~9% decline to the $136 strike is highly probable. Current FCF yield of ~3.5% provides insufficient buffer against any adverse macro shifts or increased competitive landscape. 90% YES — invalid if ABNB's FY25 FCF growth exceeds 25% YoY.
ABNB's current ~30x forward P/E is unsustainable given its decelerating 2-year revenue CAGR projection of 12-14%. With higher discount rates structurally re-pricing long-duration assets, we expect significant multiple compression. The modest ~9% decline to the $136 strike is highly probable. Current FCF yield of ~3.5% provides insufficient buffer against any adverse macro shifts or increased competitive landscape. 90% YES — invalid if ABNB's FY25 FCF growth exceeds 25% YoY.
