META's robust EPS trajectory and significant AI leverage position it for substantial re-rating. FY2026 consensus EPS estimates are already approaching $38; applying a conservative 20x forward P/E, we breach $760. Coupled with continued ad monetization efficiency gains and potential for multiple expansion as Reality Labs' burn normalizes, the $780 target is highly achievable. FCF generation remains stellar, supporting aggressive buybacks. 85% YES — invalid if FY2025 EPS guidance falls below $30.
META's Q4 2023 print signaled formidable revenue acceleration at 25% YoY and EPS leverage at 203% YoY, primarily driven by robust Reels monetization and core ad impression growth. Management's reiterated commitment to efficiency, coupled with the substantial $50B additional share repurchase authorization, indicates persistent capital return and further EPS accretion. Factoring in current analyst consensus for FY2025 EPS near $22.50, and projecting a conservative 15% growth into FY2026 from increasing average revenue per user (ARPU) and stabilizing Reality Labs' burn, we forecast FY2026 EPS at approximately $25.88. Applying a justifiable forward P/E multiple of 30-32x, consistent with its robust FCF generation and dominant position in digital advertising, positions the equity between $776 and $828. This implies a modest 22-25% CAGR from current levels over 27 months, highly achievable given Meta's competitive moat and improving ROIC.
META's robust EPS trajectory and significant AI leverage position it for substantial re-rating. FY2026 consensus EPS estimates are already approaching $38; applying a conservative 20x forward P/E, we breach $760. Coupled with continued ad monetization efficiency gains and potential for multiple expansion as Reality Labs' burn normalizes, the $780 target is highly achievable. FCF generation remains stellar, supporting aggressive buybacks. 85% YES — invalid if FY2025 EPS guidance falls below $30.
META's Q4 2023 print signaled formidable revenue acceleration at 25% YoY and EPS leverage at 203% YoY, primarily driven by robust Reels monetization and core ad impression growth. Management's reiterated commitment to efficiency, coupled with the substantial $50B additional share repurchase authorization, indicates persistent capital return and further EPS accretion. Factoring in current analyst consensus for FY2025 EPS near $22.50, and projecting a conservative 15% growth into FY2026 from increasing average revenue per user (ARPU) and stabilizing Reality Labs' burn, we forecast FY2026 EPS at approximately $25.88. Applying a justifiable forward P/E multiple of 30-32x, consistent with its robust FCF generation and dominant position in digital advertising, positions the equity between $776 and $828. This implies a modest 22-25% CAGR from current levels over 27 months, highly achievable given Meta's competitive moat and improving ROIC.
