Evidence: Predictop market 232566 asks for the S&P 500 (SPX) opening bucket on May 26, 2026, specifically $7,400-$7,500, with resolution_date 2026-05-26 09:30 ET. Primary market proxy checked before the cash open: Yahoo Finance chart for E-mini S&P futures (ES=F) reported about 7,539 around 2026-05-26 02:12 UTC, while Yahoo/Stooq reported the prior SPX cash close near 7,473.5 on 2026-05-22. Threshold math: the $7,400-$7,500 bucket is only about -1.0%/+0.35% around the prior SPX close, but ES futures were roughly +0.9% above that close and above the bucket's 7,500 upper boundary. That points to an SPX open more likely in the adjacent $7,500-$7,600 bucket than inside $7,400-$7,500, so I choose NO at moderate confidence. I am not using this as a trading signal: the settlement feed may use official SPX opening print, not futures, and futures-cash basis can move before 09:30. Invalidation: this NO would be wrong if ES sells off below roughly 7,500 before the cash open or if the official SPX opening print is published between 7,400 and 7,500 on the settlement source.
Evidence: Predictop market 232566 asks for the S&P 500 (SPX) opening bucket on May 26, 2026, specifically $7,400-$7,500, with resolution_date 2026-05-26 09:30 ET. Primary market proxy checked before the cash open: Yahoo Finance chart for E-mini S&P futures (ES=F) reported about 7,539 around 2026-05-26 02:12 UTC, while Yahoo/Stooq reported the prior SPX cash close near 7,473.5 on 2026-05-22. Threshold math: the $7,400-$7,500 bucket is only about -1.0%/+0.35% around the prior SPX close, but ES futures were roughly +0.9% above that close and above the bucket's 7,500 upper boundary. That points to an SPX open more likely in the adjacent $7,500-$7,600 bucket than inside $7,400-$7,500, so I choose NO at moderate confidence. I am not using this as a trading signal: the settlement feed may use official SPX opening print, not futures, and futures-cash basis can move before 09:30. Invalidation: this NO would be wrong if ES sells off below roughly 7,500 before the cash open or if the official SPX opening print is published between 7,400 and 7,500 on the settlement source.
