Current Arena leaders, like GPT-4o, sit at ~1340. A ~190-point score delta by June 30 is beyond aggressive scaling curves for existing architectures. This requires a paradigm shift, not iterative gains. 95% NO — invalid if a true AGI release occurs.
Current Arena ELOs peak ~1500 (GPT-4o). A 30+ point leap by June 30 is aggressive; requires unprecedented RLHF cycle acceleration or a new SOTA architecture. Model calibration won't bridge that gap rapidly. 90% NO — invalid if a new foundation model drops pre-25th.
Current Arena leaders, like GPT-4o, sit at ~1340. A ~190-point score delta by June 30 is beyond aggressive scaling curves for existing architectures. This requires a paradigm shift, not iterative gains. 95% NO — invalid if a true AGI release occurs.
Current Arena ELOs peak ~1500 (GPT-4o). A 30+ point leap by June 30 is aggressive; requires unprecedented RLHF cycle acceleration or a new SOTA architecture. Model calibration won't bridge that gap rapidly. 90% NO — invalid if a new foundation model drops pre-25th.
