The geopolitical calculus strongly indicates against immediate direct engagement. Visible back-channel preparatory talks, critical for high-level US-Iran bilateral meetings, are entirely absent. With the entrenched sanctions regime and Iran's recalcitrant negotiation posture, neither side exhibits strategic alignment or political will for a premature diplomatic convergence by May 11. Lead times alone preclude a surprise summit. 95% YES — invalid if any official US or Iranian source confirms direct bilateral engagement before May 11.
